UK Election analysis and Brexit – Part 2

Wednesday is the final day of campaigning in a UK election dominated by Brexit and the NHS. Both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn have had a bruising final week. Johnson was ambushed by a reporter with a picture of a young boy with pneumonia sleeping on a hospital floor. Clearly caught off guard Johnson was pressed on the state of the NHS and was attacked by Labour as being uncompassionate. However, it was not long before Jeremy Corbyn had his own problems after Jonathan Ashworth, shadow health secretary, was heard on a leaked recording referring to Corbyn as a “security risk” and that Labour’s chances of winning the election were “abysmal”.

Opinion polling has shown the Conservatives lead stabilising at 10 points but there has been some polling showing a slight dip to around 7 points which could lead to a hung parliament. A point to note is that Survation (a UK polling company) has been showing a Conservative lead of between 10-14 points over the last few weeks. In 2017 Survation were the only pollster to accurately reflect the election result.

The pound has seen 31-month highs against the US dollar hitting $1.32, as a result of the Conservatives holding their lead. Any result other than a Conservative majority could wipe these gains out and plunge the pound to new lows.

A large factor in the outcome of this election will be in Labour held seats where people voted to leave the EU in large numbers. In the 2016 European Union referendum, of 232 Labour seats, 148 voted to leave the EU. Labour have continually voted against any deal put forward by the government and this may come back to haunt them. The Conservatives have to capitalise on these seats in order to win a majority and cancel out any Labour-SNP coalition or having to knock on the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland again.

Exit poll results will be released on Friday 10 am AEST and will give a good indication of the result.