UK Election analysis and Brexit – Part 1

With just over a week to go and the polls narrowing there is still little certainty over how and when Brexit will happen. At the start of the campaigning period Brexit was at the heart of discussion but has somewhat taken a back seat with accusations of Anti-Semitism in the Labour party and questions over the Conservative parties plans for the National Health Service taking centre stage.

Boris Johnsons Conservatives promise to vote through the amended Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) and end the impasse in parliament. This would provide some clarity and allow the economy to prepare and adapt for Brexit. The Labour party have proposed yet another negotiated deal followed by a confirmatory referendum on the issue if elected. This plan has been somewhat confusing for the electorate and differs from the Liberal Democrats pledge to simply overturn the result and “cancel Brexit”. However, none of this is that simple.

The Liberal Democrats were viewed as home for voters who wanted to remain in the European Union but could not vote for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party. It was feared that this could split the remain vote giving a boost to the Conservatives. However, after dismal displays from the party leader Jo Swinson and the realisation that the Liberal Democrats can not win an election on their own, many remain voters are flocking back to the Labour party. It has once again become a two-horse race in England and Wales between the Conservatives and Labour.

Ever since the election was called Boris Johnson has enjoyed a comfortable lead in the opinion polls but this appears to be narrowing towards election day. In 2017 then Prime Minister Theresa May saw double digit leads wiped out resulting in a hung parliament. With 71% of voters who cast their ballot for Labour in 2017 saying they would do so again shows the potential for a similar result.

The wildcard in this election could be the performance of the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) who could increase their number of MP’s to 50. The SNP are prepared to form a coalition government with Labour or offer confidence and supply in return for a second referendum on Scottish independence. This outcome would lead to two referendums in 2020 and uncertainty on the future of the United Kingdom.

Whilst preferring remaining in the EU, UK markets and business reacted well to Boris Johnsons deal and a Conservative majority would deliver clarity on the outcome of Brexit. This could have a positive impact on UK equities and a rally in the pound which has been hovering around $1.29 against the dollar. Whilst a Labour majority is unlikely a hung parliament with the SNP being the kingmaker could result in Labour taking power. Labour have also flirted with the idea of nationalising certain industries. More uncertainty and a Labour government could be detrimental to the market and sterling.

The bookmakers and many commentators have a Conservative majority as the favourite but the outside chance of a hung parliament with the SNP propelling Jeremy Corbyn into Number 10 Downing Street might not be that farfetched.